2027: How Yar’Adua’s death triggered Nigeria’s zoning crisis — Kwankwaso
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, a chieftain of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), has traced the roots of Nigeria’s recurring “zoning” controversies to the untimely death of former President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010.
Speaking during an interview on Arise TV on Monday, the former Kano State Governor argued that the sudden shift in power following Yar’Adua’s demise disrupted the established rhythm of rotation between the North and South, leading to the political friction seen today.
The ‘Yar’Adua factor’ in zoning
Kwankwaso explained that the NDC’s decision to zone its 2027 presidential ticket to the South is a strategic move to “eliminate the confusion” that has haunted the Nigerian political landscape for over a decade.
“We believe the best way to go now is to take it to the South so that we can eliminate the confusion… that emanated from the death of our brother, our friend, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. That actually introduced the confusion into the system,” Kwankwaso stated.
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Yar’Adua, a Northerner, died in office in May 2010 before completing his first term. His Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan (a Southerner), completed that term and subsequently won a full four-year term in 2011—a move that many Northern stakeholders at the time felt cheated the region of its Eight-year “turn.”
The ‘Buhari reset’
While acknowledging that critics often calculate zoning differently depending on their regional interests, Kwankwaso noted that the NDC has opted for a “cleaner starting point” by using the end of the Muhammadu Buhari administration as the benchmark.
The Southern Argument: Since Buhari (North) served eight years, the South is currently in its first term under the present cycle.
The NDC Stance: By 2027, the South will have completed four years, justifying a second term for the region to maintain equity.
“One can argue that from 1999 to date, the South has done more years than the North. But it depends on how it suits you,” Kwankwaso admitted. “What worked now is counting from Buhari.”
Unity over ambition
The NDC chieftain revealed that Northern leaders within the party accepted the Southern zoning arrangement without resistance, prioritizing national stability over regional dominance.
“Almost all of us joining from the North, we accepted. There is no point in fighting,” he said, adding that the debate over “turns” is often a distraction from the ultimate goal of governance.
He emphasized that while zoning provides a framework for fairness, Nigeria’s priority must be “quality leadership,” adding that the country needs leaders who are “enthusiastic, determined, and committed.”
The NDC officially adopted its Southern zoning policy during its national convention in Abuja. This follows the high-profile defection of Kwankwaso and Peter Obi to the party on May 3, after the duo exited the African Democratic Congress (ADC) following internal leadership disputes.
